"It's the economy, stupid"

Joseph

Ben-

In response to your March 27th episode of Sharp Tech.

TLDR:

  • Your cavalierness is offensive
  • It is time to loudly call for regulation of Generative AI (regulation, not elimination)
  • In the same way TikTok is a question of values, so too is Generative AI
  • I implore you to take a stand and insist on regulation to stop this free-for-all / -fall

Background

Some background first… I too am from Wisconsin. Though not from a small town directly, I have many personal ties to towns that were hollowed out as jobs moved elsewhere. My journey did not take me to tech, instead it took me on a very different path. I do not have millions of dollars, nor do I have the prospect of having a million of dollars.

I share all of this as context, as well as a profound statement of respect and admiration for your work, so that you know that the following statement is meant to be constructive.

Your cavalierness is offensive and you betray the values you purport to have being from small town Wisconsin.

Globalization

We are both deeply familiar with globalization and its promises. The promises that we would be able to buy more stuff, find more and better opportunities, and markets would “clear".

The opportunity presented were new jobs in “high tech” fields where there were higher paying salaries. And because there was more economic incentive to move into those fields, it was thought that the market would “clear” naturally – meaning people would naturally pursue those opportunities.

The reality – again as we both know – is that markets, on average, are efficient and will clear. However, that average will be over generations and certainly not within a year. There are structural (eg. geographic location) and educational limitations that will prevent the majority of individuals who experience career loss (note: not just job loss) from being able to realize a better outcome.

Apolitical

I appreciate your apoliticalness when dealing with the subjects you do. A dry, objectively reasoned, approach is best and can be found for most subjects – if a solution is desired.

I do not believe you would need to betray your apoliticalness when I say:

The time has come to loudly call for regulation of Generative AI with the aim of slowing its usage (if not completely restricting its usage outside of research), so that we – as a society – may have any chance of reaching a better outcome over the next generation.

Our society is not equipped – forget not ready – to handle the amount of job loss that could happen in the next 10 years.

Values

In the same way that I get angry when people say TikTok should be banned because of the data it collects, I am getting angry with you because you’re excited to see how Generative AI plays out.

TikTok isn’t a question of data collection, it’s a question of values. The values (aka. principal stack) we hold up to TikTok shouldn’t suddenly change when we evaluate an American company or American technology. In the same way TikTok is a question of values so too is Generative AI a question of values.

So what do we value?

We have invested centuries of (merely) American's time building up the concept of your job being your dignity and your worth. Without question we should have done more – or really anything – to support the communities, least of all the individuals, being “cleared” as a result of globalization. The reality, as both you and I likely know, is that many (probably most) people did not find retraining to land a new career, they languished and fell far behind.

I am not here to say that because the potential mass layoffs are coming for white-collar workers that “now” it’s important. I am here to say we must heed the lessons of the past or mass chaos is on the horizon.

Let’s take an example: Some quick research tells me there are 330,000 paralegals and 1.3 million attorneys in the US alone; this is roughly a 1:4 ratio. I do not think it is a stretch to say the potential of Generative AI will bring that ratio closer to 1:10 and (current caseload holding constant) drive a 30% reduction in the number of attorneys required to service their clients. In this fictitious example, that would mean roughly 400,000 attorneys and 240,000 paralegals (72%!) would lose their jobs.

Insert whatever joke about the litigiousness of Americans, that’s over 600,000 jobs from a single field.

But keeping with just those 600,000, what job should they be able to look forward to? What training or skill set should they acquire to stay valuable? Are they supposed to start making content on social media? Even you have said that is moving to AI generated content tailored for the individual.

For the first time ever, we have developed a technology (Generative AI) which completely breaks the human-to-human connectedness of our economy. Until now, technology has been a tool to further reach, albeit in often some pretty obscure ways, but you could derive to its roots a human-to-human connection. I’m also sure I don’t need to explain to you the pride of a manufacturing line worker in the product they build. Yes, they are increasingly using massively complicated machinery, but it is their work, their pride, we connect with when we purchase their widget.

It is a question of values. What do we value more:

  1. Human connectedness
  2. Dignity of a career
  3. Economic efficiency

I am a capitalist, but I still value human connectedness above economic efficiency. Which leaves me asking the question: What is enough?

Our Future

Generative AI is here, and it cannot be undone. However, we must slow down, or really stop, until we can understand the tradeoffs. Are we really supposed to wait for 20 million people to lose their jobs before we consider the aggregate consequences?

Just because Generative AI is here does not mean it needs to be a free-for-all.

I am amazed and awestruck by the power and capability of this AI, but it is that awe that absolutely terrifies me.

It is time to take a values-based stand to severely limit Generative AI so that we have an opportunity to prepare for its future. This is not an issue which can wait for several years, I implore you to be a custodian of all our futures and loudly call for regulation.

All the best,

Joseph


PS- I sent this to the whole team because I intend to build on this letter:

  • How Generative AI will enable Xi Jinping’s vision for China’s complete dominance
  • Generative AI is the means to Apple’s App Store of their dreams
  • What does being wrong look like if we act and doesn’t happen vs being wrong and we don’t act

On that last point, just to call it out, which is worse:

  • We were wrong when we feared job losses and we set back advances in Generative AI by a generation
  • We were wrong when we didn’t fear job losses and a quarter of American (alone) jobs are lost